Greg Fischer news and thoughts

So I managed to sneak my way into a Greg Fischer fundraiser in Lexington yesterday. (I was the only one not wearing a coat or tie... go figure). I would say roughly 30 people showed up and mingled, listening to a brief speech by Greg and some of his supporters. Fayette County Dems Pres David O'Neil showed up, as did the one and only Ernesto Scorsone (Scorsone split the scene early before I could catch him and ask whether he was just attending and was giving him the Ernesto bump). Anyway, a thankya to A.J. for letting the filthy online rabble in to mix with the Lexington high-society types.

Fischer said all of the right things in the speech, nothing particularly new. He once again made the slightly passive aggressive swipe at Bruce Lunsford, saying we need a real choice for voters in the general between Mitch McConnell and a real Democrat (said that he won't chair Ernie Fletcher's transition team.)

OK, here's some free advice for Mr. Fischer (and some brutal honesty):

The way I see it, he faces two big problems right now: (1) He's in a giant hole in terms of being able to catch up to Bruce Lunsford, and (2) a lot of progressives and Democrats just don't know what to make of him, or have any real trust in him.

To the first point, here is what Fischer is up against. Hardly anyone knows who the hell he is, vs. Lunsford, who has a very high name ID (though many hate him). Additionally, Fischer doesn't intend to spend much money from his own pocketbook, instead relying on fundraising. I cannot emphasize what a mistake this is. The man has 2 months to close a BIG gap (I don't care what "internal polls" say), and he can't do this unless he (1) floods KY with ads to build up his name ID, and (2) goes NEGATIVE on Lunsford to show what a SDINOGDNHS he is. Lunsford will be flooding us with ads (unless he's WAY up in the polls) telling us how he is the "change" candidate, as laughable as that might be. If there is no massive pushback against this, most people will believe it, and there will be no perceived difference between the two to the great majority of KY Democrats. Fischer must show that he is the real thing, and Lunsford is a poser that shifts with the wind. If they don't make a ton ads showing the press conference of McConnell introducing Lunsford at his endorsement of Fletcher, then Fischer really doesn't want to win.

Another disadvantage is of course that the entire D.C., Frankfort and Union establishment is firmly in Lunsford's corner. No matter how resistant Fischer's camp is to the idea that Beshear and the KDP will go all out for Lunsford, believe me, it is 100% true. Fischer once more has to tie Lunsford to the D.C. establishment, which EVERYBODY hates right now. This will be tricky, because Lunsford will paint himself once more as the "change" candidate, who will be marching into D.C. in order to change things. If there is no negative pushback, again, people will see no difference between Fischer and Lunsford, and Bruce wins easy in that scenario.

So the point? Spend your damn millions and go negative on Lunsford. Otherwise, it won't even be close, and Lunsford can spend most of the campaign sipping cocktails on a beach in L.A. (if Fischer tries not spending a lot of his own money to look like the "little guy", nobody will believe that from a bazillionaire, so I don't see any point in trying, really)

The second area in which Fischer has to make up ground, is his ability to gain the trust of liberals who don't know who the hell he really is. Fischer says all of the right things, but really... Greg Fischer? Where did this guy come from? What has he said or done about health care before this year? What has he publicly said or done about the Iraq War before this year? When did he become a critic of the war? What motivated his switch to giving to Democrats after Bush came into office? People want to get behind a real progressive and they want to trust him, but many remain hesitant to do so because they just don't know what to make of him. Again, he doesn't have a lot of time to gain that trust, too. (I'll say that his endorsement of A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq today is a step in the right direction. Larry Korb is mobbed by teenage girls wherever he goes, just like the Beatles. First you get The Korb, then your get the power, then you get the women...)

Here's one suggestion I have: get behind Barack Obama. Now. Pitch that fence-sitting waffling shit, and get behind The Dude. This will GET THE ATTENTION OF PROGRESSIVE ACTIVISTS INSTANTLY. THAT is what he needs more than anything right now. Barack Obama is going to dominate in Louisville, and possibly Lexington. This move will negate a lot of Lunsford's support in Louisville. He wins big enough there, he's at least got a chance. (the problem with this, of course, is that Jim Cauley (former Obama campaign manager and the #1 Lunsford backer in Beshear inner circle) might get Obama to go full force behind Lunsford in the primary. He does that, then Fischer is fucked)). Start wooing Obama and his supporters NOW. It's a gamble, but I think you have to start gambling at this point.

I have a few others, but I'll keep them under wraps for the time being.

Consider this free, public and very amateur advice.