In the race to replace retiring Reverend Ron Lewis' 2nd Congressional seat, slightly repugnant Democratic State Senator David Boswell has a 47-44% advantage over Republican McConnell-protege Brett Guthrie, according to a new SUSA poll.
IMO, this is fairly remarkable stuff that indicates that The Great Democratic Wave of 2008 might not leave out us in Kentucky.
The great news from the cross-tabs is Boswell leads Guthrie among "moderates" 62-29%.
However, a few caveats.
1. David Boswell is a big-time Blue Dog who makes Ben Chandler look like Dennis Kucinich. This guy will disappoint us endlessly.
2. David Boswell is a really lazy fundraiser who is behind almost 4-1 in cash to Guthrie. If he doesn't pick up the pace, Guthrie will bury him in ads and take the race.
3. Within the margin of error and 30% say they could change their mind. A looooong way to go on this one, people.
4. "Liberals" make up only 9% of the very conservative district.
However, primary season is over and we're stuck with what we have. As much as Boswell makes us cringe (and he will), he'll be more reliable than another Mitch McConnell stooge who would probably hold that seat for quite a while if he gets into office.
Hold your nose, and ride the wave.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Boswell (D) up 3 points on Guthrie (R) in 2nd District race
Posted by Media Czech at 1:21 AM
Labels: 2008 Congressional races, Brett Guthrie, David Boswell, polls
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4 Comments:
Wow. That's *very* surprising. And even though he thinks that women are the property of their parents/husbands, still > than Guthrie any day.
9% undecided though? Seems like a lot of people just picked party, not candidate. I bet a lot changes once they go up on air.
Correct me if I'm wrong... we're redistricting in 2010, and KY is likely to lose a house seat...
Now, this is something we probably don't like thinking about, but if David Williams does not lose his senate seat, what district is destroyed? It will probably be the 3rd, unless Louisville is protected is protected in some way I don't know about (doubtful, since the last redistricting plan almost put Oldham County in the 3rd...)
However, if we do manage to either get enough seats to overtake David Williams, or if the House stands tall, we could probably get rid of the 2nd, merging together much of that district with the 1st, expanding the 6th, and districting Hardin and Shelby counties in a way that could protect Congressman Yarmuth.
Basically, what I'm trying to say is, while I hope Boswell wins, I hope in the end this seat won't be around much longer...
Aside, imagine if we had Congresswoman Ryan versus Congressman Boswell if the two were redistricted, and both somehow won....
To my knowledge, we're not redistricting....
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