Polls, polls, polls...

Some crosstab madness from the SUSA polling goodness yesterday:

First, on the Republican primary side

Rand Paul- 35

Trey Grayson- 32

Other/Undecided- 33

Gender-wise, Paul leads 40-32 among Male Liberty Patriots, Grayson leads 33-29 among females.

Among young voters, Paul had a crazy-high advantage in the last SUSA poll, but now trails 43-40. Odd.

Among conservatives (69% of respondents), Paul leads 39-31, but is losing huge among moderates. This falls more in line with what I think will happen (the last SUSA was the opposite, if I recall correctly), as Rand Paul is much much much more conservative (both economically and socially) than Trey Grayson.

Regionally, Grayson takes Western KY and Louisville, while Paul takes Eastern, Central and Northern KY.

The rest is pretty much split evenly.

On to the Democratic side:

Dan Mongiardo- 39

Jack Conway- 28

Other/unD- 33

(Conway's internals disagree greatly, not surprisingly)

They are even among conservatives (26% of respondents), and Dan is up 10 among moderates (43%) and 24 among liberals (21%). What does this mean? Conway's campaign is doing a shitty job of informing Democratic voters on where the candidates stand so far. That's the bad news. The good news is that once they get their act together, the numbers will improve greatly. From the looks of Conway's little internal push poll, this seems to be the case. But.... yea, it's time to start cracking, Team Conway.

Among pro-choicers, pro-life Mongiardo is winning 46-30 over pro-choice Conway. (see above, again)

Mongiardo up huge in Western and Eastern KY, Conway up huge in Louisville, Mongiardo up 9 in Central and Northern.

In about everything else, Lt. Dan is up by the total margin.

On to the general head-to-head matchups:

Conway- 44%

Paul- 39%

Conway- 39%

Grayson- 43%

Mongiardo- 38%

Grayson- 48%

Mongiardo- 43%

Paul- 43%

First of all, the obvious situation at the moment is that both Democratic and Republican voters are , so far, choosing the weaker candidate for the general. But again, a long way to go still...

The big obvious divide in the general is gender, with males going Republican and females going Democrat by very wide margins in all races.

Age-wise, Conway is cleaning up among both young voters and the elderly, while Grayson is cleaning house among 34-65 year olds. The rest is pretty even among all candidates.

Moderates are going huge for Democrats, with Conway winning by 20% against Grayson and 35% against Paul.

Regionally, Grayson beats Mongiardo everywhere, and actually splits the vote in Eastern KY. Ouch.

Conway cleans house in Louisville, of course, but struggles most in Western KY.

The rest is pretty typical, as you'd expect.

Dontcha just love crosstabs? Or maybe thats just me...

Share on Facebook